Polymarket Smart-Money Detector
Wallets whose track record predicts future wins — and what they're betting on right now.
+0.421
rank-corr: past→future winrate (out-of-sample)
75.0%
winrate of validated edge cohort
(whale (>=$5k) + one-sided)
61.7% vs 29.1%
best vs worst quartile, future markets
Edge cohort price-adjusted ROI 95% CI [+2.5%, +21.0%]
across 91 markets · baseline winrate 49.8% (≈50% = unbiased method)
· 42,727 resolved wallet-markets, Dec 2025 - Jun 2026.
Top smart-money wallets · ranked by persistence-adjusted winrate & ROI
| # | wallet | markets | winrate | ROI |
|---|
| 1 |
0x0d2d…7ff5 |
23 |
65.2% |
+202.8% |
| 2 |
0x1556…b722 |
16 |
68.8% |
+157.4% |
| 3 |
0x222b…1a8d |
17 |
76.5% |
+102.4% |
| 4 |
0x26d6…cacc |
16 |
75.0% |
+102.9% |
| 5 |
0x3a72…331f |
7 |
100.0% |
+451.6% |
| 6 |
0xb5a1…c09d |
16 |
93.8% |
+57.4% |
| 7 |
0x05ae…5a4b |
7 |
85.7% |
+413.2% |
| 8 |
0xee0c…3e4d |
10 |
100.0% |
+78.8% |
| 9 |
0x65ec…a2f9 |
9 |
100.0% |
+90.5% |
| 10 |
0xb4d2…ce99 |
6 |
100.0% |
+180.1% |
| 11 |
0xb743…7107 |
6 |
100.0% |
+377.8% |
| 12 |
0xa0b1…f219 |
6 |
100.0% |
+392.9% |
| 13 |
0x0d1c…3347 |
16 |
75.0% |
+74.7% |
| 14 |
0x672d…97f1 |
7 |
85.7% |
+140.3% |
| 15 |
0x4371…eea4 |
17 |
76.5% |
+63.3% |
| 16 |
0x1056…3c9d |
14 |
78.6% |
+72.2% |
| 17 |
0x5fb3…4aa5 |
16 |
75.0% |
+68.6% |
| 18 |
0x69f4…c6ee |
15 |
73.3% |
+71.9% |
| 19 |
0x4c04…7dca |
24 |
95.8% |
+11.7% |
| 20 |
0x2c46…dac9 |
29 |
93.1% |
+8.0% |
| 21 |
0xfd3e…5a7a |
32 |
71.9% |
+30.6% |
| 22 |
0x55be…fb40 |
6 |
83.3% |
+200.1% |
| 23 |
0x4e67…9a3e |
6 |
83.3% |
+169.0% |
| 24 |
0x0322…8177 |
6 |
83.3% |
+199.4% |
| 25 |
0xe325…34d0 |
6 |
83.3% |
+154.2% |
What the smart money is holding NOW · live, on 2098 open markets
LIVE·updated 3m ago·auto-refreshes
| #wallets | ~shares | side | price | spotted→now | market |
|---|
| 4 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
| 3 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
| 3 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
| 3 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
| 3 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
| 2 agree |
●●●● |
●●● |
●●¢ |
●●¢ → ●●¢ (+●●%) |
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● |
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